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Michigan, MSU and the rest of college football are preparing for big unknowns

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Mike Locksley isn't complaining about the current state of college football. Instead, he accepted it and, yes, maybe even embraced it. Sure, it's messy, unpredictable, messy and a little crazy. But such is life in this new age and Locksley is determined to get through it as best he can.

“We just have to stay creative and find solutions,” Locksley, Maryland’s head coach, told the Free Press in early April.

Locksley won't rest until he does. Persistence is deep within him. It helped him become a career survivor who, against all odds, bounced back from a disastrous 2-26 season at New Mexico and built a winning team at a lower-tier Big Ten school over the last five seasons.

This past winter, the Terrapins earned their third straight bowl victory, which was the first time in their 131-year existence. They also presented Michigan football with one of its toughest tests during the Wolverines' undefeated run to a national championship.

Getting Maryland to a point where it could compete with the sport's established powers required, above all, a big vision, a methodical process and patience. But Locksley admits he no longer has the luxury of time he once did. The world he inhabits with the rest of his fellow trainers has accelerated and become more volatile, much like the planets in the outer reaches of our solar system.

“Everything is year to year,” Locksley said. “The team you build can and will sometimes look very different than the one you had before.”

In fact, the situation could change dramatically in the short period of time between last spring training and the start of preseason camp during the dog days of summer. Two recent court rulings have the potential to cause massive turmoil later this month and prompt rapid roster turnover across all programs.

One of those rulings forced the NCAA to lift eligibility restrictions for student-athletes who change schools multiple times. The other prevented the university association from punishing players for negotiating name, image and likeness agreements (NIL) with support groups during recruiting. With those guardrails lifted in a sport where the old rules increasingly no longer apply, people have come to view Tuesday as a kind of end of the world, the start of a reckoning that coincides with the opening of the next transfer portal window.

“I'm not being a prophet here saying there will be seismic movements,” said Craig Bohl, the new executive director of the American Football Coaches Association. “But it will probably be more than we expected. … I coached for 42 years, I was a head coach for 21 years, and I can't remember a time where there was a lack of clarity, there was fear, there were question marks where everyone looked and said, 'Okay, what 'What's next?' will unfold?' I have seen more discomfort from my colleagues than ever before.”

The concern Bohl describes can be heard in the voice of a Midwest Power Four head coach who spoke to the Free Press on the condition of anonymity. With a hint of exasperation, he said, “Literally, until August, you have no idea what kind of team you have or who will be on your team. You can be low one day but not the next. I mean, everyone has the same problems.”

Climate change

The climate of uncertainty is being felt in spring training, long viewed as a crucial period in the life cycle of a college program, when the depth chart begins to be organized and plans are adjusted to match the strengths of the available talent and a foundation for the coming season is set.

“Where the boys earn their spurs and you do your best in attack, defense and kicking, where you evaluate the personnel and at the end you say: 'This is the squad we have,'” said Bohl, who said in December after leading Wyoming for the past 10 years.

“They want to know who’s there.”

But these days, in the ever-changing landscape of college football, nothing is set in stone. The instability has created a difficult environment for Michigan's Sherrone Moore and Michigan State's Jonathan Smith, two newly appointed coaches looking to establish themselves in a deeper, more powerful conference that now has 18 teams.

In East Lansing, Smith will be tasked with revitalizing the Spartans after they posted a 4-8 record last fall following the scandalous firing of his predecessor, Mel Tucker. It's a massive undertaking that will require installing new systems and retooling for returning players, with the looming possibility of defections in the coming weeks potentially undoing the progress made over the past month.

“It’s a lot more challenging,” admitted MSU offensive line coach Jim Michalczik. “But I would like to think that the kids will accept our program, the way we do it and the way we do it.”

MORE MSU: MSU's Pro Day commemorates Mel Tucker's failed mission and Jonathan Smith's great task

Sixty-five miles away in Ann Arbor, Moore tries to demand the same commitment while dealing with his own complications. He must transform an offense that has lost 10 starters and preserve a top-notch defense that features a star-studded core that was rumored to be coveted by some of the Wolverines' top competitors this offseason. Cornerback Will Johnson, one of UM's most highly regarded players, said it's “easy to get tempted by potential opportunities elsewhere.”

“Especially when you hear all the numbers and things like that,” he explained.

“Sometimes you have to be a man and business is business. But we definitely all want to stay together,” said Kenneth Grant, the junior defensive tackle who burst onto the scene last fall.

Whether this happens, however, remains to be seen in this age with few guarantees.

This time last year, more than 1,000 players at the FBS and FCS levels entered the portal. But Moore and his assistants expect the impressive solidarity within Michigan's ranks, so evident during its rise to the top of college football, will keep the team's spirit intact. Since Moore's predecessor, Jim Harbaugh, left for the Los Angeles Chargers in late January, sparking a major personnel shakeup, only four lettermen have entered the portal. The players say the strong community in the locker room has stemmed the brain drain. This also applies to the NIL support, which was used to retain its most prominent contributors.

READ MORE: Michigan football's revamped offense is catching up with its mighty defense: 'Lots of new players'

“Gasoline is burning”

However, a sense of unrest continues to permeate campuses across the country. In Bohl's constituency, frustration is growing over the rampant manipulation that is becoming more and more pervasive in the age of unrestricted transfer movement. Bohl said it had become “a real point of contention” and that “a little bit of gasoline was being thrown on the fire.”

No program seems to be immune to this either.

Locksley fears his Maryland squad could be “eaten by both ends of the football hierarchy,” by the big sharks fishing for the Terps' best players and the bottom-feeding minnows craving reserves. The losses he has already suffered have created imbalances between position groups and forced him to adjust his practice in recent weeks. It wasn't ideal, he noted.

“But we will be smart about it,” he said.

Locksley had to rethink his approach and focus more on developing intangible aspects such as culture and chemistry to encourage loyalty, rather than just focusing on football-specific ventures designed to help his team win on matchdays. He has adjusted his methods by reducing the number of contacts in spring training to protect the health of his most valuable players and by patterning workouts after the NFL's organized team activities. The rationale is based on the assumption that he may not have enough zero funds to secure adequate replacement for a key starter in the event of injury.

“In my opinion, you can’t do it the way you used to,” he said. “I don’t think the squads are deep enough and as we get closer and the portal opens more and more people will jump in. …You play the waiting game. Most of us know 90% what the team will look like. But that 10% may be 10 of your best players. There can be 10 depth players. I think that’s the unknown.”

The mystery behind it is insane and is embarrassing everyone in the college football ecosystem.

“What's the bottom line?” Locksley asked with a hint of confusion. “Nobody knows yet what the thing will look like in the end.”

But Locksley plans to remain flexible and adapt until there is a clear view and some semblance of order in a sport manipulated by the invisible hand of its NIL-controlled portal market. He said it had become his duty to “weather the storm.”

As Locksley explained, “I’m almost killing myself trying to figure out how to find a solution.”

You can expect nothing less from a man who has shown in the past that he has what it takes to survive.

Contact Rainer Sabin at [email protected]. follow him @RainerSabin.

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