Patriots 53-man roster prediction: Tough decisions at WR, QB

Patriots 53-man roster projection: Tough decisions at WR, QB originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

It's about that time. With the NFL Draft not too far away, let's take an absurdly early look ahead to early September and try to project the shape of the Patriots' 53-man roster heading into Week 1.

As you'll notice, roster turnover is real here. After four wins in 2022, the Patriots have clearly tried to revamp their offense – particularly in the draft, where seven of their eight picks were used to address that side of the ball. And that shows in this first forecast.

More than half of the offensive players you'll find on this list (14 of 23) are new to the club this offseason. This includes all three active quarterbacks.

Let’s start diving in here. (Players listed in Italics are newbies.)

Regardless of whether Drake Maye is the starter to start the season or not – my guess right now is that he won't be, but I wouldn't rule it out – we know who the top two quarterbacks on the depth chart will be: Maye and Brissett.

Thereafter? It makes sense to keep Joe Milton as the third player if he shows the Patriots everything they need throughout the summer to know he's improving. If the Patriots were to release him, they would risk losing him to a team looking to add some quarterback depth with a rare specimen at the position.

In this scenario, the Patriots would pass on both Nathan Rourke and Bailey Zappe.

This group feels remarkably thin. Stevenson is a true all-around player when healthy, but he finished poorly last season and entered the season as a less-than-full camp participant.

It's the nature of this position. Injuries happen. It simply does not appear that this unit is adequately prepared for an emergency situation.

Harris is far from a lock, but he's built to get away on handoffs between the tackles should Stevenson go down. He is really the only reserve player in the squad who seems suitable for these tasks at the moment.

Here, keep an eye on Oregon State undrafted rookie DeShaun Fenwick, who stands around 6-foot-1 and weighs 220 pounds.

The Patriots announced their receiver room on draft weekend. JuJu Smith-Schuster is no lock. Neither does Tyquan Thornton.

Douglas should be one of the regular players here alongside newcomers Polk and Baker. KJ Osborn is sure to stick around after receiving over $3 million guaranteed this offseason. The same goes for Kendrick Bourne, who received $5.5 million guaranteed after re-signing him this offseason.

If Bourne isn't ready to make an immediate return from last season's season-ending knee injury – even though he said he would miss this offseason – he may end up on the physically unable to perform list and open a place for someone who has already stopped here.

According to Henry and Hooper, this unity is far from solidified at this point. But let's roll with four people here.

Wilcox is a true blocker and special teams player at the NFL level and he is durable. He has played in all but three of the last three seasons. And with kickoff coming back into play this year, teams will need players with good size and athleticism — perhaps more size and a little less long speed than required in past years — to play under the new rules.

We're also adding Bell here as a big and fast (88th percentile 40-yard dash) blocking or coverage option on kickoffs and kick returns. Given the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming kickoff, teams must build their rosters with this game in mind.

After Andrews, Onwenu, Sow, Robinson, Wallace and Okorafor, it's hard to say how the rest of this room will be filled. Leverett gives the team a versatile interior defender with some NFL experience. (He started 10 games for the Bucs in 2022.) He'll have to beat out Jake Andrews — a fourth-round rookie a year ago — for that role.

Anderson was believed to be in contention as a starter last offseason before struggling with an illness that derailed his 2023. If he's healthy and looks good in camp, he could be an outside option for them. Cole Strange isn't here after being knocked out last year. Looks like him did not fully participate in the voluntary portion of the offseason program. Maybe he'll be a PUP candidate early on.

The question with this group would be what the starting lineup looks like. Could be Okorafor at left tackle, Robinson at left guard, Andrews at center, Sow at right guard and Onwenu at right tackle.

Maybe Wallace can beat Okorafor. Or perhaps Onwenu moves to the left side, opening up a chance for Okorafor or Wallace on the right. There is still a lot to solve here.

There are no changes here from last year's unit, but it wouldn't be a surprise if the Patriots brought some competition for Ryland after his tumultuous rookie year.

Pretty strong group here. The big change from last year would be Watts coming in for Lawrence Guy, the Patriots' long-time starter. But it remains a versatile group with White and Wise able to play both inside and outside.

Barmore – fresh off a new extension – has established himself as an all-down defender. Godchaux was the anchor of a highly effective run defense last year, and Ekuale has the power to overwhelm the quarterback on third-down and two-minute situations.

That would be a pretty big group for new linebackers coach Dont'a Hightower. But the first four names appear to be safe for the squad.

Mapu is a name whose role is hard to imagine because he's a bit of a “tweener,” but whether he's a linebacker or a safety… he was a third-round pick just a year ago and he is a pretty player He's an impressive size-weight-speed athlete, so the expectation here is that he'll stick around. Elliss would be another “we need to make sure we have capable kickoff and kick coverage players this year” selection.

McMillan has the versatility to play in the kicking game and the experienced skill to play on the defensive side. The only question with him is health since he missed all of last year. He hasn't played more than 250 defensive snaps in a season since 2019.

Acquiring veteran Ximines after the draft seems to be an indication that the Patriots felt they could use some depth here, even with the roster open to 90 players. They didn't add a linebacker in the draft. And other than Judon, Jennings and Uche, they had no real outside supporters.

Tavai, Bentley and others have the opportunity to fill a few different spots in the front seven, but with an injury or two, that spot could be difficult. Ximines has real experience in the kicking game, which will help his chances here too.

After the top three in this position, it feels completely open. Austin showed promise late last season. Wade has so many impressive physical attributes that he was able to last multiple seasons in a Mayo-led defense.

Dial gives the Patriots real upside because of his athleticism and aggressive style of play and – wait for it – special teams potential.

Just like in the corner group, the top three look absolutely solid here. Schooler will likely only be a special teams option, but based on his effectiveness in this phase, he should be on the active roster to start the season.

Hawkins has played over 200 special teams snaps in two of the last three seasons, and he saw nearly 1,000 defensive snaps in 2022 (the year he didn't). He's an NFL-caliber player who looks like a third safety and a key special teams player.

Bolden might be a little forgotten to some after missing the entire season last season due to a scary head injury in Green Bay. But he could make the team based on his kickoff return skills alone. Because the new system no longer allows coverage units to form shifts the same way they did under the old system, an athletic returner who can break a tackle can be an explosive play machine.

With both Bolden and Marcus Jones healthy again, the Patriots could have two tough options to beat in the kicker game.