Group of Five Will Drive Realignment of Five College Football Conferences: Ranking G5 Teams Most Likely to Advance

As part of the college football conference's drastic, compelling and sometimes confusing realignment, several Group of Five teams have elected to move to the Power Five leagues.

And while the Pac-12 has all but been dismantled, those steps may not even be complete yet. As energy conferences continue to increase, G5 teams could be part of this effort.

Here's a ranking of the Group of Five programs most likely to move to a Power Five conference. Five of the seven teams on this list are from the Mountain West.

Group of five teams most likely to participate in conference realignment, ranked

7. Fresno State

Fresno State has a lot to offer.

The Bulldogs ranked 12th among G5 teams in total revenue and were outside the top 12 in total spending. While it's not the most impressive media market, the Fresno area isn't a bad place for a conference to get a foothold .

The Bulldogs have also had success recently. They won the Mountain West Championship in 2022 and went 9-4 in 2023 after defeating New Mexico State in the New Mexico Bowl. Fresno State would be perfectly capable of fitting into a power league from a talent and recruiting perspective.

6. Colorado State

Colorado State wouldn't be the first program that comes to mind with a ranking like this, but the Rams would definitely be a program that a Power Five league like the Big 12 should consider.

The media market and exposure should be attractive given CSU's proximity to Denver, although CSU may have to compete with Colorado in terms of new additions and viewership. CSU also had the eighth-highest total revenue among G5 programs in 2022, giving the team enough money to prepare for a jump to a P5 conference.

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5. Boise State

Many have called for Boise State to move up to the Power Five, and the Broncos have been the subject of many conference realignment rumors in recent years.

In Boise, Idaho, the market is not huge and national viewership is mid-range. But Boise State ranked 14th among G5 teams in total revenue, so picking that school would be a logical choice. The program also has an energetic and loyal following, as the team has enjoyed some great success and some memorable bowl game victories over the past few decades. That alone earns Boise State status as a Power Five program, but there's a lot more to consider.

4. South Florida

South Florida is another school that many wouldn't immediately consider a Power Five-worthy team. But there would be some benefits for a league like the ACC or the Big 12 (now that UCF is a part of it) to add the Bulls.

USF hasn't had much success of late, although it gave Alabama some problems last year, finishing 7-6 overall after beating Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. But because of these difficulties in recent years, there hasn't been much energy around the program.

But maybe that would change with a Power Five move. With Tampa, USF is part of an important market. The team also plays at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and therefore has the capacity to advance.

3. Memphis

Memphis has won a number of games in recent years, and the Tigers put together another good season in 2023, going 10-3 overall after defeating Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. Maybe that could help them consider Power Five.

Memphis has a lot more to offer, including a good basketball school. The soccer program ranked seventh among G5 teams in terms of total revenue in 2022 and is also in a good position geographically. I think Memphis is the most likely of the teams in the AAC to make such a move.

2.UNLV

Yes, UNLV hasn't exactly been successful on the football field in recent years. However, the team went 9-5 overall in 2023 after losing to Boise State in the Mountain West Championship and losing to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Additionally, not all conferences take wins into account when thinking about which teams to add.

Professional sports leagues have moved or expanded to Las Vegas because it's a good market. The Rebels also ranked sixth among Group of Five teams in total revenue in 2022 and play at Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders. So you are in a good position to make the transition to the power conference.

1. San Diego State

For me, San Diego State is the clearest answer to that. As recently as 2023, the Aztecs attempted to leave the Mountain West — likely hoping to get picked up by the Pac-12 — before SDSU decided not to make that move and the Pac-12 changed drastically.

But San Diego State is the most poised to jump from the G5 to the Power Five. SDSU ranked fifth among Group of Five programs in total revenue in 2022, behind only UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and Air Force, and those top three schools are now in the Big 12.

The market would also benefit a Power Five league located in a large city in California where there is no NFL presence. Snapdragon Stadium could also be home to a P5 team. And don't forget that the Aztecs reached the Final Four in basketball last season, so such a move could make sense for several SDSU programs.

If San Diego State doesn't commit to a potential Pac-12-Mountain West merger, Power Five conferences would probably be wise to consider SDSU.