World trade picture improves, but 2014 still below trend: WTO

By Tom Miles GENEVA (Reuters) – The World Trade Organization on Monday slightly raised its forecast for global goods trade growth for 2014 to 4.7 percent, saying it does not expect a return to the historical trend level of 5.3 percent until 2015.” If our forecasts are confirmed, we expect a broad but moderate increase in world trade volumes in 2014 and a further consolidation of this growth in 2015,” WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said at a press conference in Geneva. Although the 2014 forecast presents a better picture than the 4.5 percent growth the WTO had expected at the time of its last forecast in September, it is still bleaker than its forecasts a year ago, given the economic recovery in the European Union took longer to arrive than expected. “EU demand has weighed on global imports in recent years, but it is starting to change,” said WTO economist Coleman Nee. “We will be watching very closely to see if the EU recovery is disappointing,” Azevedo added. Azevedo said it was unclear whether trade had permanently stopped growing at twice the rate of gross domestic product, which was the trend until the global economic crisis. He said 80 percent of the protectionist measures implemented since 2008 were still in force, but he hoped they would be removed as economic growth increased. “It is not at the level – not even close to the level – that we had after the 1929 crisis. But it is measurable and regrettable.” The WTO forecast no trade in services, but said the dollar value of global services exports rose 6 percent to $4.6 trillion in 2013, compared with 2 percent growth in Year 2012. (Reporting by Tom Miles; Editing by Stephanie Nebehay, John Stonestreet)