Indiana 2024 primary election: Live results and analysis

Indiana's gubernatorial primary is the most interesting statewide contest currently underway. And the action is entirely on the GOP side of the aisle because the solidly red state is likely to elect another Republican to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. The leading candidate appears to be Braun, who won a Senate seat in 2018 but opted to run for governor rather than run for re-election this cycle. Still, Braun has three notable challengers for the Republican nomination: former Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, current Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch and businessman Eric Doden. A fourth, former Attorney General Curtis Hill, is infamous, but for all the wrong reasons: He lost nomination to his old post in 2020 after allegations emerged that he groped a group of women at a party.

The good news for Braun is that none of his opponents were able to stand out from the crowd. In early April, a SurveyUSA/Howey Politics/Indiana State Affairs poll showed Braun at 44 percent of likely primary voters, while Crouch, Chambers and Doden are all at about 10 percent, similar to results from previous polls on the race. However, Braun's opponents have certainly brought together the necessary resources to push for a breakthrough. In total, Braun had raised $10.2 million as of March 31, but Chambers had raised more ($12.8 million) and Doden had raised about the same amount ($10 million) — thanks in part to Millions from Chambers' own pocket and Doden's family.

Crouch hasn't raised that much (around $7 million after 2020), but she entered the final weeks of the campaign with $3.1 million in the bank, more than Braun, Chambers or Doden. The field has largely devoted its resources to discouraging Braun and advancing his candidacies, particularly addressing comments Braun made in 2020 after the police killing of George Floyd in which the senator appeared to support Black Lives Matter, a conservative apostasy, supported.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

If you're a frequent visitor to the 538 primary live blogs, you've heard this from me before, but the best way to increase the number of women in Congress – which is still only 28 percent – is to support them in seats , which are as large as most others will be competitive in November or in open spaces that are safe for your group. Seems clear, clear! And yet both parties have long failed to recruit qualified women to run for these coveted seats — particularly the GOP, which has fewer women and in less winnable seats.

But last week, Democrats in Pennsylvania had some success in this regard. Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor, defeated Rep. Scott Perry against a crowded field in Pennsylvania's 10th District in November, and Ashley Ehasz, an Apache helicopter pilot, was unopposed and is running against the representative in the 1st District Brian Fitzpatrick compete. Both seats are possible candidates for the Democrats.

However, Indiana poses a greater challenge for Democratic women. In 2020, Trump beat President Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in the Hoosier State, and only two of the nine members of his House delegation are Democrats. Both Democrats are men running for re-election, and the other seats (currently held by Republicans) are unwinnable for Democrats in November. Although Democrats are running a lot of women in Indiana this year – in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th districts and also for the Senate – it probably won't make a difference in the end.

The Democratic woman with the best chance in November (though still not a very good one) is likely gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick, who was elected as Indiana's superintendent of public instruction in 2016 as a Republican. McCormick officially changed her party affiliation to the Democratic Party in 2021.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributors

Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman was a member of the House Freedom Caucus and helped unseat former Speaker John Boehner during his first term in the House. Now he's aiming for a comeback in Indiana's 3rd District, where Banks is retiring. The winner of the GOP primary in this safely red seat is all but guaranteed a ticket to Congress.

Former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis increased Stutzman's $1.0 million to $796,000, and she also received $1.1 million in outside spending from Winning for Women (a group , which works to elect more female Republicans). The pro-establishment superparty PAC America Leads Action also spent $1.8 million against Stutzman. Tea Party groups like the Club for Growth and Protect Freedom PAC couldn't keep up, spending a total of $1.2 million on Stutzman's behalf or against his opponents.

The biggest fundraiser in the race is actually a third candidate, businessman Tim Smith (who self-funded $1.1 million), but observers believe his chances were hurt by a scandal he caused been tied up. A fourth notable candidate, State Senator Andy Zay, is also running and has raised $693,000, but at the end of the day, there's a good chance that either Stutzman or Davis will be this district's next congressman.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

We won't be watching the Indiana Senate GOP primary tonight, and that's because Republicans have virtually cleared the field for Rep. Jim Banks, who is running unopposed for Sen. Mike Braun's seat (which Braun leaves to run for governor).

Banks is a MAGA supporter who enjoys the support of former President Donald Trump, the state Republican Party and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He supports a nationwide ban on abortion after fetal heart activity is detected and sent a memo to his House colleagues in 2021 urging Republicans to “jump into the culture war” over the party's push against critical race theory. He has represented Indiana's 3rd Congressional District since his first election in 2016.

By consolidating around Banks early on, the Republican Party was able to avoid a potentially chaotic primary campaign. Former Gov. Mitch Daniels, who left politics to lead Purdue University, had considered stepping in, saying he would “mitigate the harshness and personal vitriol that has infected our public spaces.” Trump had called him a “weak RINO,” while Mark Lubbers, a Daniels adviser, responded by calling the former president and his family the “Trump crime family.” Such a primary would have potentially thrown the state party into chaos, as seen in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan as Trumpworld continues to wrest control of the party from more establishment Republicans.

Two Democrats are running for the chance to run against Banks, but both face an uphill battle. Indiana hasn't had a Democratic senator since Braun ousted Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in 2018, and the Republican nominee in 2022, Sen. Todd Young, defeated his Democratic opponent by 21 percentage points.

—Monica Potts, 538