NBA Playoffs 2024 – The four trends that have defined the field so far

Nearly three weeks into the NBA playoffs, things are starting to take shape — but not in the way we expected.

The defending champion Denver Nuggets are in a bind after losing the first two games of their series against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Denver, while the Timberwolves – who hadn't won a playoff series since 2004 – were the most impressive team of the season in the playoffs and defeated the New Orleans Pelicans in Round 1.

In the East, the Boston Celtics still have to be tested in a fast-paced 4-1 series against the Miami Heat and a dominant Game 1 win against the Cleveland Cavaliers, so all eyes are on an Eastern Conference throwback series between the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are fighting for a spot in the conference finals.

After every two games, we looked at the early statistical outliers to see what was real (the deficit) and what wasn't (Pascal Siakam as the playoffs' leading scorer). Now that we've seen at least five games from each team, it's time to review the biggest playoff trends so far and what we can learn from them.

Here are four of the biggest trends, starting with Minnesota's Anthony Edwards, who took the plunge at age 22.

Edwards was by far the MVP of the playoffs

When ESPN's Neil Paine used advanced stats to determine the best players of the first round, Edwards finished in second place behind three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, but that was before Edwards' Timberwolves won the first two games of their series against Jokic's Nuggets in impressive fashion .

Add to that the tendency of many all-in-one stats to favor big players over perimeter players, and no one has come close to Edwards' value yet. His 1.7 wins above replacement by my WARP metric is 26% higher than the next highest total – Kyrie Irving of the Dallas Mavericks, who benefited from an extra game.

Although Edwards had a strong regular season and will likely earn All-NBA honors for the first time in his career, this is still a big jump in the game after finishing sixth in regular season WARP. Looking at playoff series since 1997, seven players have averaged at least 0.25 WARP per game in the first two rounds of the playoffs without being named to the All-NBA First Team to that point.

In many of these cases, such as Paul Pierce in both 2002 and 2003 (Boston), Ben Wallace in 2003 (Detroit Pistons), Elton Brand in 2006 (LA Clippers), Chauncey Billups in 2009 (Denver), and Rajon Rondo in 2012 (Boston). ), the playoff run represented a high point for their value. But two emerging shooting guards – like Edwards – broke into the top five players in real time. Both coincidentally while playing with Hall of Famer Shaquille O'Neal.

When 22-year-old Kobe Bryant made the playoffs in 2001, he was the Robin to O'Neal's Batman. But by the end of the Lakers' 15-1 playoff victory, he had emerged as a legitimate co-star, averaging 29.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.4 assists. Dwyane Wade's 2005 playoff run at age 23, which ended in the conference finals despite his 27.4 points, 6.6 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game, was a taste of what was to come He won the Finals MVP the following year while the Heat won the title.

Edwards is on a similar pace, averaging 32.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the playoffs. His emergence as potentially the best player in a series with the reigning Finals MVP changes the ceiling for what the Timberwolves can do starting this postseason.

The Nuggets are destroyed in the first half

As important as Denver's stellar play was to the team's title run in 2023, the Nuggets also put together the strongest first half of any playoff team a year ago, outscoring their opponents by 9.0 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats. That has changed dramatically this year, as Denver's first-half net rating of minus-17.0 is ahead of only the long-eliminated Heat (minus-33.4).

Only one other team has posted a worse first-half net rating in multiple playoff series in the era of play-by-play statistics (through 1997): the 2013–14 Portland Trail Blazers, minus-17.1. There's an obvious reason for this: Most teams that score that many points before halftime are quickly eliminated from the playoffs. Portland had a more acceptable minus-6.7 points per 100 possessions in the first half of its first-round win over the Houston Rockets before falling to the San Antonio Spurs in Round 2 (minus-29.5).

Against the Los Angeles Lakers in Round 1, the Nuggets could afford to trail by an average of 14.7 points per 100 possessions in the first half and still win the series in five games thanks to their second-half comebacks. But Denver doesn't have that margin for error against Minnesota and needs to start better, especially on offense. The Nuggets ranked 15th among playoff teams with 96.5 points per possession before halftime before their offensive rating rose to 122.3 in the second half, the fifth-best mark in the playoffs.

Shooting technique inevitably plays a role here. The Nuggets made 28% of their threes in the first half and 37% after halftime. Denver's shot selection was also better in the final two quarters. According to Second Spectrum's Quantified Shot Probability (qSP) metric, which takes into account the shooter's skill in addition to position, shot type and distance to nearby defenders, the Nuggets' first-half shooting quality ranks No. 1 in the NBA six. Their second-half shooting was the best of any playoff team, but Denver needs that level of execution for a full 48 minutes.

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Boston and OKC outperform the competition

Only six teams since the first round of the playoffs, which expanded to a best-of-seven series in 2003, have had at least three of their first five wins by more than 20 points. We have shortlisted two teams in this playoff with Boston and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Celtics stand out even more, winning more than 20 in four of their five wins. The only other team to post as many blowout victories in Game 1 of the second round was the 2016 San Antonio Spurs, who were upset by an Oklahoma City team led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook despite winning Game 1 of the second round Series won by 32 points.

Generally, early victories did not lead to titles. The 2008 Boston title team, which alternated between three wins by 20 points and another by 19 and three road losses to the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks in Round 1, was the only champion from that group, and only one other team achieved it the NBA Finals: the Golden State Warriors 2016.

That track record is hardly reason for skepticism toward the Celtics and Thunder, but it is a reminder that despite a lopsided loss in Game 1, the Mavericks can still come back and beat Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers' prospects of beating Boston as strong underdogs in the series are less favorable.

Who's afraid of 3s? (Well, you should be)

One of the most fascinating statistics from this year's playoffs was the success of teams that merely take more 3s. I saw this for the first time by Lev Akabas from Sportico, who pointed out that playoff teams with more 3-point attempts in a game were 27-8 through April. The mark has now increased to 34-13 (.723), which would break the best record for teams that make more threes in a postseason. Previously, this was the case in 2015, when teams with more 3-point attempts went 50-31 (.617). So far in the 2024 playoffs, teams are already over .500 when attempting more 3s (22) than they did in 2015 (19).

What's fascinating about this trend is that simply trying to attempt more 3s hasn't been as strong a recipe for success in recent regular seasons as 3-point volume has risen sharply. It's no coincidence that the regular season win rate of teams that made more 3-point attempts peaked at 55% in 2015, but has been declining since then. The 2022-23 regular season was the only one since 2019 in which teams with more 3-point attempts had a record above .500, and those teams won just 48% of games that regular season.

Given that it goes against recent trends, I'm not entirely sure what to think about it. Maybe it's just a coincidence since we're still talking about less than 50 games total. We certainly see more variation in winning percentages in the playoffs than in the regular season. This is a stat worth watching for the rest of the postseason.