NBA draft experts have a surprising pick for the Detroit Pistons

We're just two days away from the NBA Draft Lottery and the Detroit Pistons will once again be in contention with maximum odds for the No. 1 pick after finishing with the worst record in the league.

The excitement surrounding this draft is dampened by the lack of perceived star power at the top, as there is no Victor Wembanyama, no generational talent and many fans haven't even seen some of the top guys play yet. There is no player who is viewed as someone who will save a franchise, although that could certainly prove to be a misjudgment.

This uncertainty could lead the Detroit Pistons in several directions, including trading the pick, but if they keep him, there are players who would potentially fit in with their young core.

The Pistons have a 52.1 percent chance of going in the top four of the 2024 NBA Draft and a 47.9 chance of going No. 5. So it's basically a coin toss to decide whether the Pistons take one of their top players or fall back to fifth place, a repeat of last year's worst-case scenario.

But let's stay positive and expect the Pistons to stay in the top four. If so, who should be on their radar? ESPN made a surprising choice in a recent article (subscription) by Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo in which they identified the players the Pistons should target if they remain in the top four.

Givony and Woo named Zaccharie Risacher as the No. 1 target for the Pistons if they go in the top four of the draft, which is no surprise since he was often mocked in Detroit, fills a need and is considered one of their best guys , depending on who you ask.

They also named Alex Sarr and Matas Buzelis (3rd and 4th, respectively), but it was the second choice that caught my eye, Reed Sheppard from Kentucky.

The 6-foot-3 guard is considered the best shooter in the draft and is a hard-nosed defender who averaged 2.5 steals per game. He shot an outstanding 52.1 percent from 3-point range this season and is a guy who can play both with and without the ball.

But he would join a crowded backcourt that already featured Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, not to mention Marcus Sasser, another undersized combo guard also known for his shooting.

Elite 3-point shooting suits any team and the Pistons have a particular need for this skill. But it's hard to justify taking a player in the top four who might not even start and is a questionable fit on the bench with the backup guards the Pistons already have.

As Givony suggests, Sheppard could play with either Cade or Ivey and the right coach could get them all minutes by moving them around. On paper, Sheppard is a better fit for Cade Cunningham than Ivey because of his shooting and defense, so this is a pick that could ultimately push Ivey, not Sheppard, to the bench.

That's an interesting idea, especially given the uncertainty surrounding this draft, since at least we know Sheppard can at least shoot. But given the huge need for wings and rim protection, Detroit better hope they have other options in free agency and trades, or they just added a small combo guard to a team that already has two of them, which is what the Case is not addressing their greatest needs.