The 2024 NBA Playoffs results are often explained by shooting variance

This is part of a series of NBA data nuggets released each week during the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

Last month we wrote about how making three-pointers has never been a greater requirement for winning in the NBA than it has been this regular season. Fourteen of the 16 playoff teams in 2024 were in the top half of the league in 3-point shooting percentage, and the two No. 1 seeds hit long balls at the two highest clips.

The effects of the shooting have carried over into the 2024 NBA playoffs. Through May 16, teams with a higher 3-point shooting percentage than their opponents are 49-13 in postseason games, a winning percentage of 79%.

Research has shown that defense has relatively little impact on an opponent's outside shooting percentage (at least compared to shots closer to the basket). So when analyzing the playoffs, it's important to register this number in the box score before jumping to conclusions.

Jamal Murray's improved health and a change in Aaron Gordon's role contributed to the Denver Nuggets' turnaround after they lost their first two home games to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but shooting also played a role. In Games 3, 4 and 5, Denver hit 22 of its 46 wide-open threes while Minnesota made just nine of 39.

The ultimate recent example of how shooting variance affects a series was the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. The eighth-seeded Miami Heat took a surprising 3-0 lead in the series against the Boston Celtics, with the Heat a whopping 48 % of their three-pointers and the Celtics made an unusually low 29%. As those odds neared their respective midpoints, the Celtics rattled off three straight wins, evening the series at 3-3 before Miami made 14 of its 28 three-pointers in Game 7 and advanced to the Finals.

Even compared to other key statistical categories, 3-point shooting is a strong predictor of playoff results. For example, teams that get a higher percentage of offensive rebounds than their opponents go 43-20 in the postseason – not quite as strong a correlation.

Shooting variance often has a greater impact on the outcome than more important factors such as: B. the office of arbitrator. After all, teams that have been rewarded with more free throws per field goal attempt than their opponents actually have a losing record (27-36) in the playoffs so far. Instead of blaming referees when their teams lose, perhaps coaches should tell their players to make more shots.

More NBA data nuggets:

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–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA's most consistent volume scorer of all time
–NBA postseason play is really different