NBA Draft: The question of the productive junior

With just over a month to go before the 2024 NBA Draft, everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or be more certain about the players in a class that seems to be full of uncertainty.

To accomplish this, it has become increasingly popular to develop statistical queries to identify NBA talent. In April, we published a post examining which players currently meet the threshold for the “Productive Young Athlete” query, which has a 78% “stick” rate and focuses on freshmen. Earlier this month, this was expanded upon by discussing the “Productive Sophomore” query, which has a 70% “stick” rate and applies similar criteria to sophomores instead of freshmen.

Given the increasing uncertainty regarding the “stick” rate among older applicants, such as students in their senior semesters, Productive Junior Query (PJQ) applies similar criteria to third-year students, not to second- or first-year students.

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it's important to define what “stay” means in my study. In this case, I considered a candidate to be “stayed” if he played at least five seasons in the NBA. Candidates who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “staying” if they are still in the league, as it is impossible for them to reach five NBA seasons.

There was 38 Sophomores during the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a box plus-minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic requirement of four total dunks. 65.79% (25/38) of these juniors played in the NBA for more than five years or are currently in the NBA.

The purpose of this query is to find juniors whose performance is so impressive that they have the potential to reliably predict NBA talent. Juniors who meet this criteria are expected to play almost the majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain performance threshold, and also perform at a minimum athletic level throughout the season.

Below are the players who met the Productive Junior Query from 2010 to 2021 and ultimately “stayed” in the NBA:

2010: Evan Turner, Jon Leuer and James Anderson

2011: Draymond Green

2012: CJ McCollum

2013: Victor Oladipo, Kelly Olynyk, Gorgui Dieng and Doug McDermott

2014: Delon Wright and Frank Kaminsky

2015: Taurean Prince, Willie Cauley-Stein, Anthony Gill, Justin Anderson and Gary Payton II

2016: No player who met the criteria remained “stuck” in the NBA (one player qualified).

2017: No player who met the criteria remained “stuck” in the NBA (one player qualified).

2018: Mikal Brides, Dean Wade and Keita Bates-Diop

2019: Brandon Clarke and Grant Williams

2020: Xavier Tillman and Luka Garza

2021: Neemias Queta and Jared Butler

Season 2021-22

Four players met the criteria in 2021: Oscar Tshiebwe, David Roddy, EJ Liddell and Orlando Robinson.

Oscar Tshiebwe has played just 42 minutes for the Pacers this season but has been dominant in the G League. He averaged 16.4 points and 16.1 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants this season. The former Kentucky big man was named to the NBA G League All-Rookie Team last April.

Roddy averaged 6.7 points per game in 18 minutes per game for the Grizzlies in his rookie season, then averaged 23 minutes and 8.4 points per game for the Grizzlies last season before being traded to the Phoenix Suns in February. With more time and adjustment, Roddy will likely contribute more to the Suns' game plan next season.

Liddell was selected 41st overall in the 2022 NBA Draft by the New Orleans Pelicans, but unfortunately suffered a torn ACL during a Summer League game prior to his rookie year. Liddell played just 23 minutes for the Pelicans in his sophomore year, but averaged 17.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 0.6 steals on over 50% shooting from the field in 26 G League games.

Robinson averaged 10.9 minutes per game and appeared in 67 games for the Miami Heat in his first two years in the league. The 6-foot-4 Fresno State product also appeared in nine G League games last season and averaged around 24 points, 12 rebounds, two assists, one steal and two blocks per game.

Season 2022-23

Five players met the criteria in 2022: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Zach Edey, Jaylen Clark, Adama Sanogo and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

First of all, Jackson-Davis has been a key part of the Warriors' rotation this season. He appeared in 68 games for Golden State, started 16 of those games, and averaged 16.6 minutes per game. Edey won the Naismith Award for the second year in a row and led the Purdue Boilermakers to the championship game. He is currently expected to be selected in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft. It is worth noting that he also met the criteria for the Productive Sophomore Query during the 2021-22 season, which has a 70% “stick” rate.

Clark was selected 53rd overall in the 2023 NBA Draft by the Minnesota Timberwolves and has not played in an NBA game since suffering an unfortunate Achilles tendon tear at the end of UCLA's season.

Sanogo appeared in nine games for the Bulls this season, averaging 7.3 minutes per game. The former UConn star also played in 29 games for the Windy City Bulls, averaging 30.3 minutes, 22 points, 12.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 61.5% from the field.

After declaring his intentions for the upcoming draft, Ryan Kalkbrenner finally decided to return to Creighton for his fifth season. Last season, he averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game for the Bluejays. Last season, he also qualified for the Productive Sophomore Query, which has a 70% stick rate.

Three players qualified for the Productive Junior Query last season: DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter and Jonathan Mogbo.

Holmes had a stellar junior season for Dayton, averaging 20 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.1 blocks per game. Perhaps most importantly, the Dayton big man's ability to stretch the floor took a leap forward last season. He went from shooting 31.6% of his threes (19 attempts) and 67% of his free throw attempts in his sophomore season to 71.3% from the free throw line and 38.6% from beyond the arc on 83 attempts this season. Holmes II also qualified for the Productive Young Athlete poll in his freshman season, sporting a 78% “stick” rate. Holmes is currently projected as a late second-round pick, but has as good a chance as anyone to exceed his draft value.

Carter is a 6'3″ guard who averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 assists (23.3% assist percentage), 8.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals (2.9% steal percentage) and one block per game (2.8% block percentage) for Providence last season. He converted 65.2% of his attempts at the basket (181 attempts), 37.7% of his three-pointers (223 attempts) and 75% of his attempts at the free throw line last season. Finally, Carter was unassisted on an impressive 58% of his field goals this season. He is currently expected to be selected between picks 15 and 20.

Finally, Mogbo is a 6'1″ player who averaged 14.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per game in San Francisco last season. He also posted an offensive rebound rate of 14.5%, a defensive rebound rate of 29.3%, an assist rate of 24.5%, a steal rate of 3.2 and a block rate of 3.5. Finally, Mogbo has converted 74.1% of his attempts at the basket and 31.3% of his attempts away from the basket this season. He is currently projected to be a second-round pick.

One player who made the Productive Junior Query and is worth keeping an eye on in college: Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Players in this draft class who have achieved the Productive Junior Query in the past: Zach Edey, DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter and Jonathan Mogbo.

Conclusion: Why is this useful?

The Productive Junior Query is best used when identifying talent or weighing the potential risks of signing a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, that player may be worth looking into. If you're considering a player with a second-round pick (or even a first-round pick in the case of Devin Carter) who meets the Productive Junior Query, it may be reassuring to know that 66% of players who meet the same criteria play more than five seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to consider since only 27% of second-round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts played at least five NBA seasons with a career playing time of 10-24 minutes per game. or over 4000 NBA minutes in his career. Regardless of the PJQ The query should be used in conjunction with movies, other key statistics, intangible assets and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

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