Crime fell sharply in early 2024

According to the FBI, violent crime in the United States fell significantly in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year Quarterly Uniform Crime Report.

FBI data collected from participating police departments across the country show that violent crime overall decreased 15 percent nationwide compared to the first quarter of 2023. “Murder decreased 26.4 percent, rape decreased 25.7 percent, robbery decreased 17.8 percent and aggravated assault decreased 12.5 percent,” the FBI said. reported“The number of reported property crimes also fell by 15.1 percent.”

The data come with significant caveats: it is preliminary and unaudited; police departments are likely to report more incidents before they are final; and it quantifies only the crimes that were reported and omits those that were not reported. The Bureau of Justice Statistics surveys crime victims show that less than half of violent crimes (excluding murder) and property crimes are reported to the police.

But it is consistent with other early data from 2024. The Major Cities Chiefs Association published First quarter data The number of murders fell by 17 percent in May, according to a survey of 68 police departments in major metropolitan areas.

Crime analyst Jeff Asher wrote on his Substack yesterday that the FBI's quarterly crime report “almost certainly overstates this decline,” but that the overall trend is likely to continue.

“Overall, my impression is that the trend direction shown by the FBI data for the first quarter is probably correct, but that the overall percentage changes are almost certainly exaggerated by quite a bit,” Asher wrote. “Violent and property crimes probably didn't go down 15 percent nationally (which would be by far the largest decline ever recorded in either category in a year), but they probably went down by a decent amount. Homicides went down by a lot, probably historically at this point in the year, but probably not 25 percent nationally.”

The decline in violent crime is politically significant for the criminal justice reform movement and its opponents. Although crime has declined since its peak in 2020, public perception has moved in the opposite direction; in a Gallup poll In a poll conducted late last year, 63 percent of respondents described the crime problem in the United States as extremely or very serious, the highest percentage since the polling firm first asked the question in 2000.

Several Republican-dominated states such as Louisiana and Kentucky have passed comprehensive laws to roll back bipartisan criminal justice reforms on the grounds that crime is out of control, while politicians in democratic states like Oregon and California In response to public fears, the United States is pursuing tough rhetoric against crime.

Meanwhile, the White House is trying to convince voters that things are getting better.

“This progress we're seeing is no accident,” President Joe Biden said in a White House press release. “My administration is putting more police on patrol, holding violent criminals accountable, and getting illegal guns off the streets – and we're doing it in partnership with communities. As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office.”

Of course, national crime trends do not follow White House policies or how often a president says “law and order,” as former President Donald Trump discovered.

But whatever the reason, crime is going down, it's good news for Americans. ReasonBilly Binion wrote in May: “The situation could well get worse. But if the data continues on its current trajectory, the number of murders in the United States will indeed fall back to pre-Covid levels or below.”